Small Business Marketing Blog from Duct Tape Marketing

I believe computers will always be relevant, but there's definitely a renaissance in terms of interface. We're seeing this in implementations such as the Nintendo WII, Kindle, Microsoft Table, Microprojector/Camera interfaces, etc...

We'll see many many failures before a standard format emerges as dominant. (I don't think it will be a pad or tablet)

On the back-end, there will also be a trend towards consolidation for lower TCO.

Now this is interesting... but I cannot see a near future without computers. Yes, smartphones are on the rise, but for me, I use them only when I cannot have access to a computer. They are great toys, but they cannot replace yet a computer. The social medium is changing fast, I agree.... but not everywhere on the planet.

John, It seems that Apple and Google are concentrating on the next wave of mobility in the hardware and software environments. I don't see the decline in the office and home PC markets anytime soon, but I think we are close to declaring Apple and Google the champions of mobility (and connectivity), both today and in the next few years. However, I wouldn't count Microsoft out just yet. They have a way of figuring out where they need to go and adapting. Maybe they will take over the interactive TV market.

Very interesting observation John. I think Apple has also been successful in marketing their brand and is viewed as much more hip and cool than others in that space. No doubt, that 'cool' factor has gone a long way in helping them grow.

Apple's products are really revolutionary but it takes more time to reach and dominant the market position. Though Forbes stated that Apple has acquired 'The World's Most Valuable Brands' position recently, when compare to the size of market in terms of production, demand and supply by Microsoft or other leading software/hardware providers, Apple might never lead first position with only mobile products. There is no wonder because not all works can run on mobile devices.

Google has little to fear from Apple. Although I am continually amazed at the cult-like following that Apple has been able to create around new hardware launches; hardware is less "sticky" than platform technologies in the long run. Relying on a hardware driven sales strategy, a company is always one cycle away from being leap-frogged, where platforms have more of a multiplier effect as far as growing users. Google is making significant inroads with Android operating system and Google's Local content growth is impressive. We have written recently on local listing strategies at http://www.localmarketinginternetsecrets.com/ and think that local content can provide Google (Android) an advatage over other hardware platforms. Time will tell!

Usually i dont use the computer these days only on the iphone because safari browser on it rocks.

John -

I think you have some really great ideas at times and I really enjoy your blog, but let's get some perspective. (And no, I'm not an Apple hater, I'm a user and a shareholder)

1) The PC industry (desktops+laptops) grew last quarter (20% ish i think), and shipped in the range of 80 million units. Apple shipped around 3.5 million desktops/laptops in the same period (which is great, this was a growth of a reasonable amount - 30%, again, I think, the earnings call was a week ago).

2) While smart phones grew at an outstanding rate (50 ish percent), the overall mobile phone industry grew inline with expectations and within a couple points of the computer industry (again low 20s percent change). In other words, a huge portion of growth is smart phones stealing marketshare from feature phones.

3) If you are looking for story in the financials from Apple, might I suggest two things:

* The amazing turnaround in Asia/Pacific (traditionally they have had a lot of trouble in this market and it is a natural fit for their mobile devices)
* Overall growth in per unit price (Apple is getting the average consumer to spend more per item which, long term, helps margins)

You could be forgiven for not knowing this, reading the tech press you would think that the only people buying computers are a couple of computer nerds and big companies. I think there is two things going on:

1) Numerous economics studies have shown that humans are terrible at evaluating things in absolute terms. Instead they turn them into relative problems when it is inappropriate to do so. This results in different behavior depending on how the data is presented. I believe the press has fallen into this trap and created a false narrative about mobile overtaking CPUs. Which leads to 2...

2) The press loves a narrative, the narrative at the moment is that mobile is huge and computers are the best of the 80s. Any time info comes out to confirm this idea, people publish an article otherwise they ignore it (hey, it turns out journalist make terrible scientist, there's a shock).

Ben - great comment as always and I thoroughly appreciate the time and perspective, but this isn't an Apple piece or even a computer piece as much as to state that war is not going to be waged over computers, no matter what the growth looks like this year or next - the war is for the social network on mobile devices because that's where the profit is coming from in the future - computers and computing aren't going away the money's just shifted to a different platform.

And my point is there is no evidence of a shift at all (though there is evidence of a shift *within* the mobile segment to smart devices). If there was a shift happening, the growth rate of mobile would be outpacing standard PC sales, and it isn't. The completive battle between companies will always be fought where there is profit. There is absolutely profit in delivering content to mobile. However, there is more profit in delivering content to computers (meaning desktops/laptops). The growth of these two segments is about the same. For mobile to overtake computers it would have to be growing faster.

So, the behavior of companies is/and will be to fight both grounds. Just because mobile is important doesn't make computers unimportant.

I'm with John on this Ben- The numbers as I've seen it last is that laptops are significantly outselling desktops, and that many consumers are making do with I-pads or smart phones as their 'computer'. I'll note that this was the case in Japan beginning about 5 years ago. I think we are seeing that now that we have the ability to have the killer apps in our pocket, we, as consumers, have chosen to do so.

Interesting article John. The move to the cloud is inevitable (and very helpful for most businesses), but I have to disagree that Apple will dominate for years. Google already has business apps in the cloud, and its mobile presence is soaring with Android. I think of all companies, Google is actually the best positioned (Microsoft has got to be at the bottom of the big 3, which is shocking when you consider how many times Bill Gates used to proclaim that cell phones were the future; if he knew then, why did they do nothing about it?).

The central premise of the article is completely accurate; everything will move to the cloud, and computers are no longer the necessities that they once were. Interesting article, on a topic that is sure to be very hot for the next few years

Jason
http://www.facebook.com/pages/StartupSidekick/148793365130702 (Follow me on Facebook for more entrepreneurial advice)

Apple just seems to kick people's butt with the products they make! Actually though I think Facebook is the biggest threat to Google's cash cow - online search revenue

This statement is a bit lofty and definitely early. Hand held devices are just mobile computers. The desktop may be old news, but computers are here to stay. This is all about computers evolving.

I agree, heck our brains are just computers, but how we use them his changing. When someone picks up a mobile device and finds and dentist without the use of an ad or a search engine, that's radical.